Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-26 1.352182 1.420171 1.490508 1.568873 1.653939 1.743705 1.845874
2025-11-02 1.243983 1.339714 1.442806 1.562699 1.699093 1.850392 2.032273
2025-11-09 1.164199 1.274063 1.395489 1.540787 1.711462 1.907562 2.152861
2025-11-16 1.101849 1.220859 1.355081 1.519364 1.717410 1.951672 2.254778
2025-11-23 1.061144 1.188594 1.334927 1.517702 1.743312 2.017494 2.383840
2025-11-30 1.032293 1.167700 1.325721 1.526830 1.780639 2.097165 2.533581
2025-12-07 0.993666 1.132731 1.297127 1.509510 1.782420 2.130098 2.622298
2025-12-14 0.954039 1.094551 1.262450 1.482112 1.768731 2.140642 2.679486
2025-12-21 0.924126 1.066858 1.239207 1.467508 1.769971 2.169770 2.762917
2025-12-28 0.909477 1.057241 1.237763 1.480260 1.807153 2.248568 2.921949
2026-01-04 0.889360 1.039855 1.225528 1.477917 1.823237 2.298255 3.040944
2026-01-11 0.877446 1.032252 1.225254 1.490972 1.860448 2.379170 3.212864
2026-01-18 0.858838 1.015965 1.213722 1.489170 1.877909 2.434162 3.351893
2026-01-25 0.840027 0.998814 1.200425 1.484311 1.890629 2.482723 3.484818
2026-02-01 0.816369 0.974567 1.176814 1.464046 1.879766 2.494479 3.556711
2026-02-08 0.794292 0.951727 1.154289 1.444279 1.868422 2.504364 3.625507
2026-02-15 0.780373 0.939191 1.145102 1.442745 1.883669 2.556137 3.771616
2026-02-22 0.770917 0.932234 1.143121 1.451170 1.913941 2.633208 3.970430
2026-03-01 0.753180 0.913705 1.124729 1.435181 1.906046 2.647526 4.053597
2026-03-08 0.732979 0.891382 1.100511 1.409870 1.882573 2.634596 4.083161
2026-03-15 0.717795 0.875488 1.084752 1.396369 1.876829 2.650800 4.170766
2026-03-22 0.711948 0.872087 1.086200 1.408158 1.911222 2.736886 4.406761
2026-03-29 0.701713 0.862411 1.078532 1.405992 1.923059 2.784431 4.568571